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Fundstrat’s Head of Research Explains Why $150K Bitcoin by Year End Is Still ‘Not off the Table’

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In an look on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Road” on July 1, Tom Lee, co-founder and head of analysis at Fundstrat International Advisors, shared his ideas on the present state of the markets, his predictions for the S&P 500, and his bullish thesis on Bitcoin.

Market Outlook and S&P 500 Predictions

Lee started by discussing the general market circumstances and his expectations for the S&P 500. As of mid-2024, Lee highlighted that earnings for 2025 are trying stronger than anticipated, with estimates rising from an preliminary $260 to probably $275, $280, and even $285. He believes this improved earnings outlook is coupled with a probably dovish Federal Reserve and a softening employment image, which may result in larger price-to-earnings (PE) multiples.

Lee emphasised that if the S&P 500 achieves earnings of $285 and applies a PE a number of of 20, the index may attain 5,800 by year-end. This projection implies a continued however extra reasonable development in comparison with the primary half of the yr. He famous that such a situation would end in a complete return of just a little over 20%, a major determine given the market’s efficiency over the previous two years.

Affect of Money Holdings

Lee addressed the big money reserves held by buyers, amounting to $6 trillion. He prompt that this substantial liquidity, which has been sitting in money incomes 5%, may quickly face a “Day of Reckoning” as buyers understand they’ve missed out on important market good points. This realization, he says, may drive extra funding into equities, additional supporting market development.

Sources of Liquidity

When questioned in regards to the origins of this liquidity, Lee acknowledged that it’s a mixture of earned revenue and stimulus measures. He identified that whereas the fiscal deficit stays excessive, a lot of the money comes from earned revenue on belongings, which traditionally would have been reinvested into the economic system or equities.

Bitcoin Thesis

Tom Lee additionally mentioned his bullish stance on Bitcoin, reiterating his goal of $150,000. Regardless of earlier volatility and skepticism, Lee stays assured in his projection. He attributed the current struggles of Bitcoin to the overhang of the Mt. Gox distributions, which have been a priority for years. Nonetheless, with these distributions anticipated to begin in July, Lee anticipates a pointy rebound within the second half of the yr.

Lee reminded viewers that Bitcoin’s good points are sometimes concentrated in just some days every year. Particularly, he famous that if the ten greatest days are excluded, Bitcoin would have destructive returns yearly.

Featured Picture through Pixabay

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