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Morgan Stanley Economists Reveal Surprise Forecast as Everyone Expects Interest Rate Cut in March

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Morgan Stanley’s workforce of economists, led by Ellen Zentner, expressed their views on present market expectations for a Fed charge lower in March 2024.

The market is presently pricing the likelihood of a charge lower at 70% beginning in March. Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley’s forecasts contradict this and predict a later begin in June.

Zentner states that the FED will want clear and convincing proof that inflation has returned to its 2% goal earlier than beginning rate of interest cuts. The workforce predicts persistent providers inflation will result in increased inflation pressures over the following two months. This might probably delay rate of interest cuts, opposite to market expectations.

Zentner mentioned, “Our inflation forecasts point out that inflation will rise within the subsequent two months, so we expect that market expectations of a charge lower in March are exaggerated.”

Morgan Stanley additionally acknowledged that there’s a complicated state of affairs with non-farm payrolls knowledge, stating {that a} single weak knowledge is probably not sufficient for a charge lower. In line with analysts, to be able to lower rates of interest in March, non-agricultural employment should stay beneath 50 thousand in February and core CPI should be beneath 0.2% on a month-to-month foundation.

“The dangers are in the direction of a disruption sooner than we anticipated,” Zentner mentioned and added:

“Weaker inflation and employment knowledge will enhance the chance of a lower in Might, with indicators probably showing within the FOMC March Abstract of Financial Forecasts.”

*This isn’t funding recommendation.

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