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Solana ETF Applications Look Like Bets on Trump Retaking White House, Making U.S. Friendlier to Crypto

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Two asset managers, VanEck and 21Shares, filed to launch solana ETFs this week.

They seem like dead-on-arrival beneath Joe Biden, however a key deadline within the approval course of could be subsequent yr, when Donald Trump, if he retakes the presidency, could be in workplace.

Given Trump’s latest embrace of crypto, that will increase the chances solana ETFs will get authorised.

Asset supervisor VanEck wasted no time increasing its crypto exchange-traded fund journey, this week changing into the primary agency to use to create one tied to solana (SOL). One other agency, 21Shares, put in a request a day later.

Given how lengthy the approval course of will take, their choices seem like a wager that newly crypto-friendly Donald Trump will win the U.S. presidency in November and take workplace in January.

Though solely bitcoin ETFs have been authorised thus far within the U.S. and funds – from VanEck and others – that search to carry Ethereum’s ether (ETH) aren’t even absolutely authorised but, solana is a pure subsequent step given it is one of many largest cryptocurrencies.

However it hasn’t cleared a prerequisite for the Biden administration’s Securities and Change Fee: a well-established regulated derivatives market. Each bitcoin and ether have had that within the type of CME Group’s cryptocurrency futures contracts.

Now that Trump has warmed to digital belongings and he is even accepting crypto donations for his marketing campaign, that and some other potential objections could also be moot.

“I feel VanEck’s submitting is a kind of name possibility on the November election,” James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, mentioned throughout an interview carried out earlier than 21Shares turned the second solana applicant. “Below the present SEC administration – primarily based on years of prior approval and denial orders for crypto ETFs – a solana ETF needs to be denied as a result of there isn’t any federally regulated futures market. However a brand new admin within the White Home and a brand new SEC admin that’s extra amenable to crypto insurance policies might change that calculus.”

An ether ETF is awaiting closing SEC approval, which might occur any day now, based on stories. However New York-based asset supervisor VanEck made its subsequent transfer.

Timing performs a central function. VanEck submitted an S-1 submitting for a possible SOL ETF on Thursday. That’s wanted when an entity is seeking to supply a brand new safety available on the market. However the submitting is meaningless if a second one, a 19b-4 type, isn’t submitted.

Whereas a call on an S-1 submitting isn’t topic to a sure timeline, the SEC is compelled to answer a 19b-4 inside 240 days. If VanEck had been to file a 19b-4 for its solana ETF at the moment, that deadline could be Feb. 25, 2025, a month into a possible Trump administration.

Present bets on Polymarket recommend that former Trump has a 67% probability of successful the presidential election in November towards present President Joe Biden. The SEC beneath Biden has visibly been onerous to persuade to approve any crypto-related merchandise; these which have been have taken years.

However a Trump administration would nearly definitely exchange present SEC Chair Gary Gensler and shake up its priorities.

“Provided that CME-traded solana futures don’t presently exist, it appears the one viable path for spot solana ETF approval could be the implementation of a reliable crypto regulatory framework that clearly defines which crypto belongings are securities versus commodities – or for the SEC to agree with solana being designated as a non-security commodity,” mentioned Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Retailer, an funding advisory agency.

“In both case, the company would additionally want comfortability round surveillance sharing agreements with presently unregulated spot crypto exchanges. All of that seems extremely unlikely to occur beneath the present administration, which makes the VanEck and 21Shares filings probably bets on a extra crypto-friendly authorities,” he mentioned.

VanEck declined to touch upon whether or not its submitting for a SOL ETF was a wager on Trump or not.

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